Polling Problems

I don’t know about you, but on election night of 2016 I was shocked to say the least. I think the election result left the majority of the country in a bit shock. One reason that Donald Trump’s victory was such a surprise was because none of the national polls, or any “expert” gave him any realistic chance of winning the election. The only reliable source that gave Trump even a slight chance of victory was the probability and statistics website fivethirtyeight.com, saying he had just a 28% chance of winning just days before the election. The majority of the population does not participate in national polls, but to understand more about this topic I talked to a friend of a friend Bryce Ellis, who worked at a national polling station.

Why was every single national poll so off? How could a system that has been reliable in the past fail so drastically this time? Bryce was able to weigh in on these questions and more. After this interview I concluded that a cause for this political upset could be credited to false confidence of a clinton victory portrayed by the news media. People might have stayed home instead of making the trip to the ballet box believing that the race was already won. Attached is the full interview. What are your thoughts?


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